The parameters of the survey include the price of Brent crude oil, the economic growth of Kazakhstan, inflation, the base rate, as well as the export and import of goods and services, and the exchange rate of the tenge.
In November, the scenario conditions for oil prices for 2025 and 2026 were updated. According to median estimates, the price of Brent crude oil is expected to be $76.5 per barrel in 2025 (previously $75 per barrel). The forecast for 2026 has been lowered to $74 per barrel. Expectations for 2024 are set at $80.4 per barrel.
Forecasts for Kazakhstan's economic growth for 2024 have been revised upwards from 4% to 4.2%. Respondents' expectations for 2025 have been reduced from 5% to 4.7%. The forecast for 2026 remains unchanged at 4.5%.
Analysts have worsened their inflation forecasts for 2025 from 6.7% to 6.9%. For 2024 and 2026, expectations remain the same at 8.4% and 6.0%, respectively.
The forecasts for the base rate for 2025 have been revised upwards from 12.0% to 12.5%, reflecting changes in analysts' inflation expectations. Estimates for 2026 have been adjusted from 10.1% to 10.3%. Median values for the 2024 forecasts remain at 14.6%.
The survey involved 13 organizations engaged in the analysis and forecasting of macroeconomic indicators for Kazakhstan. The respondents include professional market participants, research institutions, international organizations, and rating agencies.
We remind you that the macroeconomic survey does not contain forecasts from the National Bank. It represents an overview of independent opinions, assessments, and expectations of professional market participants regarding the development of the situation in the Kazakh and global markets.