Experts raise alarms: what to expect from the real estate market in 2025.

• Prices for new housing will rise;
• The housing deficit in major cities will continue to drive prices up, with the secondary market taking precedence (people will increasingly opt for apartments with finishing to avoid renovation costs);
• Developers will shift to a "smaller but more affordable" format (focusing on the "everything in one" concept: housing, offices, shops, and parks within a single residential complex);
• To reduce construction costs, developers will begin exploring suburban and regional areas. Competition is increasing. Buyers can expect flexible terms, along with promotions.

The President of the Kazakhstan Builders Association, Viktor Mikryukov, believes that the primary market remains under pressure today.

“The main reasons are: prices are rising. Construction materials are more expensive, labor wages are higher—housing is becoming less affordable. Government programs help, but not for everyone. Preferential mortgages and the Otbasy Bank support demand, but they cannot reach all those in need yet. What are people choosing? Compact economy-class apartments are a top choice among young families and working individuals,”
says Viktor Mikryukov.

The rising cost of construction materials and increased labor wages continue to hike the cost of housing. At the same time, preferential mortgage programs, such as "7-20-25" and "Nauryz," support demand but are unable to cover all those in need.

Interest in the premium segment is reportedly waning, according to experts. In major cities, particularly in Almaty and Astana, demand remains high, but the limited availability of land plots is hindering the development of new projects.

The secondary market is gaining popularity. Buyers are increasingly choosing apartments with finishing to minimize additional renovation expenses. According to experts, demand is concentrated on buildings constructed after 2015, featuring optimal layouts and developed infrastructure.

However, the outdated housing stock—buildings from the Soviet era and the early 2000s—loses its appeal. Spacious apartments with outdated layouts and low energy efficiency are becoming less liquid, especially in the regions.

Impact of Economic Factors

The market situation largely depends on macroeconomic stability. Fluctuations in the tenge exchange rate and inflation (expected at 8-10% per year) directly affect the cost of materials and services. This creates conditions for further price increases.

Media speculation about currency rates pushes sellers to raise prices in listings, although actual transactions often occur at lower prices. As noted by Nina Lukyanenko, an advisor to the President of the Kazakhstan Realtors Association, sellers inflate their expectations, further increasing the imbalance between supply and demand.

Forecasts for 2025

Price growth in the primary market will be restrained by preferential mortgages, but limited supply and high construction costs will continue to heat up the market.

The secondary market will become the primary choice for buyers, especially in major cities. However, in regions, the dynamics may vary.

Infrastructure projects and convenient layouts will maintain their popularity, and developers will be compelled to offer promotions and discounts to attract buyers.

The rental market in Astana will show growth amid the migration of economically active populations, while the market in Almaty will stabilize.