Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedov at UFC 311. Who will win, and where can you watch the live stream?

On the night of January 18-19, Los Angeles (California, USA) will host the first numbered tournament of 2025 - . The co-main event of the evening will feature a title fight in the bantamweight division between the champion from Georgia (18-4) and the contender from Russia (18-0). A well-known expert shared his thoughts on this fight with a correspondent on .

The 34-year-old Dvalishvili, who became the UFC champion in mid-September, will make his first title defense. Standing in his way is the 29-year-old undefeated fighter from Dagestan, Nurmagomedov, who is a cousin of the former champion and legend of the promotion .

The expert believes that Dvalishvili did not act wisely by agreeing to his first title defense against such a dangerous contender just four months after winning the title. In his opinion, the Georgian fighter had options to extend the duration of his championship reign.

"I probably won't be too original if I say that Merab tried to avoid this fight until the very end. I wouldn't call him clever because he couldn't find enough reasons to prolong his championship reign. Essentially, he just became champion and could have rested on those laurels for six months. But Dvalishvili seems like a kid from the street. It's as if someone challenged him: 'Oh, are you scared? Well, you are scared, right?' That was enough for him to start proving to everyone that he is not afraid. For some reason, he prioritized his street credibility over business interests.

He could learn from his friend Aljamain Sterling how to prolong a championship reign and enjoy it. Because he hasn't enjoyed it yet. He was cornered. Kasum Kasumov from Khabib's team mentioned that after the fight, they would reveal the words that convinced Dvalishvili to take this fight. Yes, the UFC management played it off as if Dvalishvili was tired of everything and demanded this fight himself, but I'm sure they made him an offer he couldn't refuse. He was pressured into accepting this fight."

Makhametov doesn't see anything interesting that Dvalishvili could offer Nurmagomedov in the octagon. For him, the clear favorite in this matchup is the undefeated Umar.

"It is in Umar and his team's best interest to have this fight now. Firstly, Dvalishvili hasn't yet established himself as a champion; he hasn't had time to savor that status, and the audience hasn't gotten used to him. To be honest, he still doesn't come across as a champion. Sometimes I think, 'Wait, he won the belt?' Everyone still remembers his antics, those video clips with O'Malley, but they forget that after that, he confidently defeated him and won the title. Essentially, he fought well against Cejudo, taking him down several times. He laid a solid foundation for his championship reign. He could have enjoyed it. On one hand, I feel sorry for Merab. He has worked so hard, trained so much, and now he might lose this title. And the probability of him losing is greater than not losing. I would give a 70 percent chance for Umar to win.

Dvalishvili really has nothing to offer Umar. He might be able to take him down, but it will be very difficult, and he will expend a lot of energy doing it, and he won't be able to hold him down. By taking him down, he might expose himself to various submissions and joint locks. Umar can get to his back well; we've seen that in his fights with Morozov and Almahan. He does this very quickly; it's a separate art in jiu-jitsu, and Umar specializes in it. This is a very dangerous position, and if Umar locks in a body triangle, Dvalishvili will be in serious trouble and will gas out quickly. Despite Dvalishvili's high-level conditioning, it will be very challenging for him in this fight. He will have to not only wrestle but also face fierce resistance each time. And perhaps he will also be taken down."

There are only two unlikely but possible scenarios for Merab's victory. They hinge either on a lucky strike or a more rational distribution of strength and energy over five rounds.

"On the scorecards, this fight looks very bad for Merab because standing up, it will be very hard for him against the high-class striker Umar. Moreover, he is not just a striker; he is a world champion in amateur MMA (2016, Macau). And we, along with Sagindik Mekeev, watched his championship and congratulated him. He was only 20 years old then, and he was already a versatile fighter. Almost nine years have passed since then, and Umar has only gotten stronger and more versatile. I really like him as a person; he conducts himself very well, and as an athlete. Plus, he trains in the best team in the world. I spoke with his coach Javier Mendez when he recently visited Astana, and he also has no doubts about Umar's championship. So on the scorecards, only some random occurrence could hinder Umar.

What exactly? We saw that Umar doesn't hold up well when he gets hit. Bekzat Almahan managed to knock him down. Merab has that chance because he can strike. He doesn't have a super knockout punch, but he can land something. And that's probably all. Because catching him in a submission... we rarely see Merab getting caught; catching him with a one-punch knockout is also unlikely, and taking him down in a five-round fight is also tough. Dvalishvili has two options: a lucky punch or to outlast Umar in five rounds, because we saw that Umar had difficulties with Sandhagen, but he adapted - Khabib told him to work standing, and Umar listens to his corner well. Sandhagen was a head taller, with longer arms, but here, against Dvalishvili, Umar will even be favored; he is taller. This fight will be easier for him than with Sandhagen," says Makhametov.

It is worth noting that the Dvalishvili - Nurmagomedov fight will be the co-main event of UFC 311 in Los Angeles. It will take place on Sunday, January 19, approximately at 09:30 Astana time. In Kazakhstan, the fight will be broadcast on the channel , and the match will also be available via subscriptions on the services and .