Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan at UFC 311: Expert analysis of the rematch, predictions, and live stream details.

On the night of January 18-19, Los Angeles (California, USA) will host the first numbered tournament of 2025 - . The main event of the evening will feature a title rematch between lightweight champion the Russian (26-1) and challenger (22-3), representing Armenia. Renowned expert shared his thoughts on this fight with a correspondent on .

The 33-year-old Makhachev and 28-year-old Tsarukyan are familiar with each other from their face-off in April 2019. At that time, the fighter from Dagestan won by unanimous decision, marking Tsarukyan's debut in the world's top league.

Since then, Islam has claimed victory in nine consecutive fights, while Arman has a record of 9-1 during this period. Makhachev will make his fourth title defense, while Tsarukyan will fight for the belt for the first time.

Speaking about the upcoming title rematch, Makmetov noted Arman's progress over the years. The expert acknowledged that Tsarukyan had significantly surprised him in their first fight with Islam.

"When I watched their first fight, I didn't know anything about Arman. After the first round, I realized that Tsarukyan was a guy with everything; he was already a versatile fighter. I was very impressed by how he moved and the fight he gave Islam. Yes, he lost; there was no doubt about the winner, but he put up a serious fight and fought well. Since that fight, I've been keeping a close eye on him. He has lived up to expectations, showing that even guys from well-off families, who never have financial problems, can achieve great success. After all, this is combat sports, where typically hungry guys from simple families succeed.

Tsarukyan has grown significantly since then, and he is confident in his victory. At least, he tries to exude that confidence. The only thing I didn't quite understand was his last statement, where he said that if he wins, he would walk across all of Russia. In the comments, people are saying, "That means he has already lost." How can he walk across all of Russia? That's impossible (laughs). Therefore, he doesn't fully believe in his victory. Or maybe it was just an awkward phrasing. And we know that Arman, despite his education, sometimes allows himself to be awkward in his phrasing, including publicly at press conferences, and that could cost him some blemishes on his reputation."

Makmetov considers it dangerous that in his last fight against , Tsarukyan revealed serious issues. Such a master as Makhachev could certainly take advantage of them.

"I liked Arman's training, especially those interesting moments when he walks in the foothills, holding his breath to see how far he can go. Allegedly, this helped him endure the choke in the fight with Oliveira. But I didn't like his fight with Charles. There were a lot of holes. I thought he would win decisively, but Oliveira put up a powerful fight. There, Arman exposed his weaknesses on the ground, making it hard to predict his victory in this regard.

Firstly, Islam is bigger and stronger; secondly, he has a victory in their first fight, which psychologically plays a role; and thirdly, Islam won’t forgive such mistakes - he is a very powerful grappler and can finish from such positions."

Weighing all the pros and cons, the expert concluded that Makhachev's victory would be the most logical outcome of the confrontation. However, it's also important not to deprive Tsarukyan of any chances for success.

"Makhachev is very diverse in grappling and decent in striking. But Arman has chances. A lot of time has passed since Makhachev's fight with Adriano Martins, and since then Islam has gone on a 14-fight winning streak, but that fight still showed that Islam can’t take extremely strong punches. He doesn't have the same durability as Khabib. If Arman lands well, that's his chance. Because in the first fight with Volkanovski, Islam also got knocked down. Secondly, if Arman approaches this fight correctly in terms of conditioning, he can keep up with Islam's pace. This could lead to Islam tiring in the fifth round, like in his fight with Volkanovski. Yes, there was a long flight and an unfamiliar time zone - that could have had an impact. Now, however, Islam is training in Las Vegas, and the fight will take place in Los Angeles, which is in the same time zone, just a four-hour drive away. He has taken this preparation more seriously.

I believe Islam should win this fight, but Arman has chances, albeit not very big. He can either land a strike or try to catch his breath and outlast. Those are the only two options. He won’t be able to win by submission or choke, and a knockout will only come if he lands a lucky punch. Those are the only chances; otherwise, Islam should win. 70 to 30 in favor of Makhachev. Arman, for the most part, falls short of Islam in all parameters," concluded Makmetov.

It is worth noting that the second fight between Makhachev and Tsarukyan will headline UFC 311 in Los Angeles. It will take place on Sunday, January 19, approximately at 10:00 Astana time. The fight will be broadcast in Kazakhstan on the channel , and the transmission will also be available via subscriptions on the services and .